Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,208$ on 2020-10-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $452$ on 2020-10-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,919$ on 2020-10-26

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $121,093$ on 2020-10-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,111$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,992.1}{1 + 10^{-0.048 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,992.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,282$ on 2020-10-26

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $542,789$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{321,617.4}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 70.2)}}\) (asimptote \(321,617.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $37,479$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,179.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 47.4)}}\) (asimptote \(35,179.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $236,684$ on 2020-10-26

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,702,750$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,601,458.0}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 154.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,601,458.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $225,706$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{219,186.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 95.3)}}\) (asimptote \(219,186.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,016,589$ on 2020-10-26

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $897,740$ on 2020-10-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $45,088$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,423.1}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 46.2)}}\) (asimptote \(41,423.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $849,950$ on 2020-10-26

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $110,594$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,689.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(95,689.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,933$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,798.3}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 52.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,798.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $104,661$ on 2020-10-26

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $450,258$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{572,392.7}{1 + 10^{-0.004 (t - 196.2)}}\) (asimptote \(572,392.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $10,091$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,212.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 38.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,212.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $115,115$ on 2020-10-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

China recovered 99%
Chile recovered 88%
Saudi Arabia recovered 87%
Nigeria recovered 85%
Israel recovered 81%
Senegal recovered 79%
Uzbekistan recovered 77%
El Salvador recovered 71%
United Arab Emirates recovered 71%
Burkina Faso recovered 68%
Maldives recovered 66%
Bolivia recovered 62%
Venezuela recovered 61%
Tajikistan recovered 58%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 47%
Dominican Republic recovered 44%
India recovered 39%
Bangladesh recovered 33%
Cabo Verde recovered 23%
Montenegro recovered 19%
Iceland recovered 18%
Ethiopia recovered 3%

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $91,175$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,000.7}{1 + 10^{-0.081 (t - 15.6)}}\) (asimptote \(86,000.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,739$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,702.0}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 31.9)}}\) (asimptote \(4,702.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $418$ on 2020-10-26

Chile⮸

Population $19,116,201$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $503,598$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{460,949.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 110.1)}}\) (asimptote \(460,949.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $14,003$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,948.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 109.5)}}\) (asimptote \(12,948.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,718$ on 2020-10-26

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $345,232$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{337,322.3}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 106.1)}}\) (asimptote \(337,322.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,313$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,346.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 122.8)}}\) (asimptote \(5,346.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,228$ on 2020-10-26

Nigeria⮸

Population $206,139,589$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $62,111$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60,967.0}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 98.4)}}\) (asimptote \(60,967.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,132$ on 2020-10-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,124.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 70.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,124.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,408$ on 2020-10-26